30 marzo, 2022

Risk analysis, when it comes to estimate the probability of disruption of organizational processes, often turns numbers into a philosophical trap. For instance, in a three-year risk cycle, two interruptions would mean an empirical probability P = 2/3. This is a probability of about 67 percent. How ever what if the process was interrupted five times in the same period?

There is no math for a probability beyond one hundred percent. If the risk analysis were independent of the probability, this sort of paradoxes may be neglected, but this parameter is as important as the impact and, both, are the basis for making financial and strategic decisions.

VRPD theorem (Nino Theorem) is the rigorous mathematical solution to this delicate subject, reducing the materialization of non-estimated risks with all the consequences derived from a wrong probability calculation.